UNC Football: Sonny Dykes Has a Challenge. Getting TCU to Take the Tar Heels Seriously

There is a natural temptation for TCU to look at North Carolina and see a team it should beat. The Tar Heels went 5–7 last season and struggled in critical areas, including turnovers, protection, explosive plays, third-down execution and red-zone production. For Sonny Dykes and his players, it would be easy to look at that film and think there is no way they can lose to UNC.

That would be the wrong mindset.

Dykes doesn't have to convince TCU that North Carolina is better. He has to convince his players that last year's North Carolina team has very little to do with the team they are about to face in Dublin.

Last Year's UNC Is Not This Year's UNC

The argument isn't that North Carolina suddenly became a great football team. We don't know that yet. But we do know it is a different team.Bill Belichick has had another offseason to reshape the roster and address the problems that exposed his team a year ago. The quarterback situation has changed, Bobby Petrino is now running the offense, and the roster has undergone another significant transformation.

None of that guarantees improvement. It does mean TCU cannot simply use last year's team as the blueprint for this one.And that's where this game becomes interesting.

The Danger Is Certainty

TCU should believe it can win. It should probably expect to win. But there is a significant difference between expecting to win and believing there is no way you can lose.UNC doesn't need to prove it is better than TCU. It needs to stay in the game.

If the Tar Heels protect the football, avoid the mistakes that repeatedly hurt them last season and create a few explosive plays, the pressure can shift quickly. Suddenly, the team that expected to control the game is looking at the scoreboard and wondering why North Carolina hasn't gone away.

That's when an upset becomes possible.

TCU Has to Respect the Unknown

The biggest problem for TCU may be that it knows exactly what UNC was in 2025 but doesn't yet know what UNC will be in 2026. That uncertainty should command attention.

Belichick's second season carries enormous scrutiny, but it also gives him an opportunity to demonstrate that last year's problems were not permanent characteristics of the program. A competitive performance against TCU wouldn't answer every question about UNC, but it would change the conversation.A victory would change it considerably.

That is why Dykes has an important job before kickoff. He has to prepare his team to beat a North Carolina program that gave everyone plenty of reasons to doubt it last season without allowing those doubts to become TCU's assumptions. TCU should be favored. There is nothing unreasonable about that.

But favorites lose when confidence becomes certainty. Dykes doesn't need to convince his players that North Carolina is better. He simply needs to convince them that the Tar Heels are dangerous enough to demand their full attention.

Because the easiest way to underestimate an opponent is to spend too much time thinking about why that opponent can't beat you.